EVANS , Jocelyn

Forecasting the Extreme Right vote in French elections is one of the few 'third-party' forecasts that has attracted attention in a forecasting literature focusing generally on incumbent performance and winners. Despite being a 'hard case' because of third-party status, unstable polling estimates and relatively few data points, previous models...

Le Front national est venu une nouvelle fois bousculer le jeu politique hexagonal à l'occasion d'un scrutin présidentiel de 2017 inédit à bien des égards. Avec 21,3 % des suffrages, Marine Le Pen se qualifie pour le second tour. Opposée à Emmanuel Macron, la présidente du FN obtient 33,9 % des exprimés et 10,6 millions de voix, établissant un...

Forecasting the Extreme Right vote in French elections is one of the few 'third-party' forecasts that has attracted attention in a forecasting literature focusing generally on incumbent performance and winners. Despite being a 'hard case' because of third-party status, unstable polling estimates and relatively few data points, previous models...

François Hollande's election as President of the Fifth Republic in May 2012 did not come as a surprise to most commentators, so unpopular was the outgoing incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy. Evans and Ivaldi's book might be read first as a systematic attempt to provide a structured analysis of where the 2012 result came from. The book provides a very...

Au lendemain de l'échec présidentiel de Marine Le Pen, le Front national est entré très affaibli dans la campagne des législatives de juin 2017. A l'issue d'une campagne quasi-inexistante sur le terrain, sur fond de tensions internes, le FN recule fortement au soir du 11 juin, totalisant un peu plus de 2,9 millions de voix et 13,2% des...

Emmanuel Macron's victory in the 2017 presidential elections represents one of the most important disruptions to French political life since the establishment of the Fifth Republic. This book analyses the political opportunities enabling a neophyte to conquer the Elysée, and the conditions leading to the unprecedented presidential runoff...

We look to forecast the number of seats the Front National (FN) will win in the 2017 legislative election. We use the most recent subnational ballot, the 2015 regional election, to estimate support for the party, and model reallocation of first-round legislative votes in the second round by applying the pattern seen between the 2011 cantonal...

This article identifies an issue model forecasting Extreme Right results in France between 1984 and 2007. Building upon the VP-function literature, this article looks at developing a model of electoral support for the Front National and Jean-Marie Le Pen, based upon the key political issues that are seen as motivating votes for this party:...

La prédiction du vote d'extrême-droite en France est un des rares cas de modèles prédictifs appliqués à des partis 'tiers' dans la littérature. Cette communication se centre sur un modèle structurel prédictif du vote en faveur du Front national (FN) aux élections présidentielles et législatives en France, dont la validité a été testée ex-post...

The French mainstream Right finds itself at its weakest in the history of the Fifth Republic. As a political bloc that had dominated the first twenty years of the Gaullist regime, and strategically addressed the Left-wing challenge of the 1980s to form an apparently monolithic single party in the early 2000s, the governing forces of the Right –...

Les élections présidentielle et législatives de 2007 ont témoigné d'un profond recul de l'extrême-droite : au soir du 22 avril, Jean-Marie Le Pen recueille un maigre 10.4 % des suffrages qui le place loin derrière ses principaux concurrents ; au premier tour des législatives, son mouvement s'effondre avec 4.3 % des voix. Dépourvu de capacité de...

This article places the 2017 French legislative elections in the broader context of confirmatory legislative elections in France. It argues that Emmanuel Macron's victory, whilst rooted in the specific political opportunity structure of the 2017 elections, is also a by-product of the broader institutional logic of 'honeymoon' legislative races....

Turnout is a key indicator in European Parliament elections in the absence of a direct executive outcome. Forecasting turnout is an important exercise in requiring the identification of a parsimonious model with good lead time from the array of structural, demographic, and attitudinal variables employed in rich explanatory models of turnout,...

The 2002 legislative and presidential elections bore testimony to the consolidation of the position of the Extreme Right in the French political system as a strong mobilisatory force. Beyond the specific circumstances of the elections which allowed Jean-Marie Le Pen to progress to the second round, but which saw a relative drop for FN and MNR...

Radical Right Parties (RRPs) have traditionally been seen as 'hard cases' to forecast, with unstable voter bases affected by short-term influences. Building upon our previous work on forecasting the French Front National's vote across time, we construct a comparable model for three other European countries–Austria, Denmark and Norway–with...

This article evaluates our structural model forecasting the Extreme-Right vote in France since the mid-1970s and reflects upon its performance in 2012. We discuss the implications of the stability of the national-level specification of the model, as well as the limitations imposed by the availability and definition of some of the macro...

Why is Populist Radical Right (PRR) support much stronger in some areas than others? Research into Radical Right voting has generally focused on individual level and, to a lesser extent, ecological correlates as their explanans. A number of pieces of research have employed multi-level models to combine contextual and individual factors, both in...

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