Expected contraction in the distribution ranges of demersal fish of high economic value in the Mediterranean and European Seas
- Others:
- COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)
- Biologie des Organismes et Ecosystèmes Aquatiques (BOREA) ; Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN) ; Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA)
- Laboratoire d'Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG) - UMR 8187 (LOG) ; Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Nord])
Description
Fisheries and aquaculture are facing many challenges worldwide, especially adaptation to climate change. Investigating future distributional changes of largely harvested species has become an extensive research topic, aiming at providing realistic ecological scenarios on which to build management measures, to help fisheries and aquaculture adapt to future climate-driven changes. Here, we use an ensemble modelling approach to estimate the contemporary and future distributional range of eight demersal fish species of high economic value in the Mediterranean Sea. We identify a cardinal influence of (i) temperature on fish species distributions, all being shaped by yearly mean and seasonality in sea bottom temperature, and (ii) the primary production. By assessing the effects of changes in future climate conditions under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios over three periods of the twenty-first century, we project a contraction of the distributional range of the eight species in the Mediterranean Sea, with a general biogeographical displacement towards the North European coasts. This will help anticipating changes in future catch potential in a warmer world, which is expected to have substantial economic consequences for Mediterranean fisheries.
Abstract
International audience
Additional details
- URL
- https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03824731
- URN
- urn:oai:HAL:insu-03824731v1
- Origin repository
- UNICA