Left atrial shape is independent predictor of arrhythmia recurrence after catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation: A shape statistics study

BACKGROUND Markers of left atrial (LA) shape may improve the prediction of postablation outcomes in atrial fibrillation (AF). Correlations to LA volume and AF persistence limit their incremental value over current clinical predictors. OBJECTIVE To develop a shape score independent from AF persistence and LA volume using shape-based statistics, and to test its ability to predict postablation outcome. METHODS Preablation computed tomography (CT) images from 141 patients with paroxysmal (57%) or persistent (43%) AF were segmented. Deformation of an average LA shape into each patient encoded patient-specific shape. Local analysis investigates regional differences between patient groups. Linear regression was used to remove shape variations related to LA volume and AF persistence, and to build a shape score to predict postablation outcome. Cross-validation was performed to evaluate its accuracy. RESULTS Ablation failure rate was 23% over a median 12-month follow-up. Regions associated with ablation failure mostly consisted of a large area on posteroinferior LA, mitral isthmus, and left inferior vein. On univariate analysis, strongest predictors were AF persistence (P 5 .005), LA indexed volume (P 5 .02), and the proposed shape score (P 5 .001). On multivariate analysis, all 3 were independent predictors of ablation failure, with the LA shape score showing the highest predictive value (odds ratio [OR] 5 6.2 [2.5-15.8], P , .001), followed by LA indexed volume (OR 5 3.1 [1.2-7.9], P 5 .019) and AF persistence (OR 5 2.9 [1.2-7.6], P 5 .022). CONCLUSION Posteroinferior LA, mitral isthmus, and left inferior vein are the regions whose shape have the highest impact on outcome. LA shape predicts AF ablation failure independently from, and more accurately than, atrial volume and AF persistence.