Probabilistic Analysis of Aircraft Fuel Consumption Using Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Description

The effects of wind uncertainty on aircraft fuel consumption are analyzed using a probabilistic trajectory predictor. The case of cruise flight subject to an average constant wind is considered. The average wind is modeled as a random variable; the wind uncertainty is obtained from ensemble weather forecasts. The probabilistic trajectory predictor is based on the Probability Transformation Method, which is a method that evolves the wind probability density function; the output of the probabilistic trajectory predictor is the probability density function of the fuel consumption. A general analysis is performed for arbitrary winds distributed uniformly, with a twofold objective: 1) present the capabilities of the probabilistic trajectory predictor, and 2) understand how the wind uncertainty affects the fuel consumption.

Abstract

Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España) TRA2014-58413-C2-1-R

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