Una metodologia per la stima dei flussi di pensionamento nel settore pubblico: il caso della Sanità ligure per il periodo 2012-2025

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During the last decade the issue of human resource planning in the health sector has become central for the implementation of possible reforms in the direction of improved efficiency, effectiveness and equity. This paper focuses on some methodological issues concerning the planning of health services in the region Liguria (Italy) and, in particular, on the estimation of outflows from the health system, due to retirements. These flows exert a considerable influence on the dynamics of the workforce as they determine the size of supply of health services and are crucial for planning the training of health personnel. The results for the period 2012-2025 show some elements and identify some important trends. As for the nurses, the stronger variations in the provision of health services are due to early resignations, mostly due to the burn-out phenomenon along with the gender imbalance (82% of staff are women). As for physicians, General Surgery and Internal Medicine are at greater risk of possible shortages, although it should be taken into account the role of technological innovation on the ability to meet the evolution of demand for health services. The high number of retirements is therefore an opportunity to redefine the skills needed by the regional health system in the light of the foreseen trends in demand

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