The future of the Italian electricity generation sector. An analysis of the possible strategic models

The present paper investigates the possible future evolution of the Italian power system. In particular, the generation sector is considered by analyzing its recent development, which has been pushed forward by EU regulations that support the deployment of renewables-based power plants. These radical changes will determine the restructuring of the system. It is therefore critical to try to understand which trajectories its possible evolution could take according to different market and economic conditions. To this aim, a scenario analysis was implemented in order to determine the strategic implications that the various situations can yield for generators. As a result, four strategic models are envisaged, namely Traditional Generator, Innovative Generator, Green Generator, and Energy Service Provider.