Prognostic and clinical impact of the endocrine resistance/sensitivity classification according to international consensus guidelines for advanced breast cancer: an individual patient-level analysis from the Mammella InterGruppo (MIG) and Gruppo Italiano Mammella (GIM) studies

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Background: Prior exposure to adjuvant endocrine therapy (ET) and timing to recurrence are crucial factors for first-line treatment choices in patients with hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative (HR+/HER2-) breast cancer (BC) and in clinical trial eligibility, classifying metastatic HR+/HER2- BC as endocrine sensitive (ES) or primary (1ER)/secondary (2ER) resistant. However, this classification is largely based on expert opinion and no proper evidence exists to date to support its possible prognostic and clinical impact. Methods: This analysis included individual patient-level data from 4 adjuvant phase III randomized trials by the Mammella InterGruppo (MIG) and Gruppo Italiano Mammella (GIM) study groups. The impact of endocrine resistance/sensitivity classification on overall survival (mOS, defined as time between date of distant relapse and death) was assessed in both univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Findings: Between November 1992 and July 2012, 9058 patients were randomized in 4 trials, of whom 6612 had HR+/HER2- BC. Median follow-up was 9.1 years (interquartile range [IQR] 5.6-15.0). In the whole cohort, disease-free survival and OS were 90.4% and 96.6% at 5 years, and 79.1% and 89.4% at 10 years, respectively. The estimated hazard of recurrence raised constantly during the first 15 years from diagnosis, being more pronounced during the first 2 years and less pronounced after year 7. Among the 493 patients with a distant relapse as first disease-free survival event and available date on ET completion, 72 (14.6%), 207 (42.0%) and 214 (43.4%) were classified as having 1ER, 2ER and ES, respectively. Median follow-up from diagnosis of a distant relapse was 3.8 years (IQR 1.6-7.5). Patients with 1ER were significantly more likely to be younger, to have N2/N3 nodal status, grade 3 tumours and to develop visceral metastases. Site of first distant relapse was significantly different between the 3 groups (p = 0.005). In patients with 1ER, 2ER and ES breast cancer, median mOS was 27.2, 38.4 and 43.2 months, respectively (p = 0.03). As compared to patients with ES disease, a higher risk of death was observed in those with 1 ER (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR] 1.54; 95% CI 1.03-2.30) and 2ER (aHR 1.17; 95% CI 0.87-1.56) (p = 0.11). Interpretation: This large analysis with long-term follow-up provides evidence on the prognostic and clinical impact of the currently adopted endocrine resistance/sensitivity classification in patients with HR+/HER2- advanced BC. This classification may be considered a valid tool to guide clinical decision-making and to design future ET trials in the metastatic setting. Funding: AIRC.

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