Importance of direct and indirect triggered seismicity in the ETAS model of seismicity
- Creators
- Helmstetter, A.
- Sornette, D.
- Others:
- Laboratoire de Géophysique Interne et Tectonophysique (LGIT) ; Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) ; Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Laboratoire Central des Ponts et Chaussées (LCPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Laboratoire de physique de la matière condensée (LPMC) ; Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) (UNS) ; COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics [Los Angeles] (IGPP) ; University of California [Los Angeles] (UCLA) ; University of California (UC)-University of California (UC)
Description
Using the simple ETAS branching model of seismicity, which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes, we quantify the role played by the cascade of triggered seismicity in controlling the rate of aftershock decay as well as the overall level of seismicity in the presence of a constant external seismicity source.We show that, in this model, the fraction of earthquakes in the population that are aftershocks is equal to the fraction of aftershocks that are indirectly triggered and is given by the average number of triggered events per earthquake. Previous observations that a significant fraction of earthquakes are triggered earthquakes therefore imply that most aftershocks are indirectly triggered by the mainshock. INDEX TERMS: 7209 Seismology: Earthquake dynamics and mechanics; 7223 Seismology: Seismic hazard assessment and prediction; 7260 Seismology: Theory and modeling.
Abstract
International audience
Additional details
- URL
- https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00194360
- URN
- urn:oai:HAL:hal-00194360v1
- Origin repository
- UNICA