Smart Grid Stochastic Optimization with Ant Colony-based Scenario Generation

Description

This paper presents a stochastic optimization approach for the operational management of sustainable energy districts and polygeneration microgrids. Stochastic operation optimization allows for an uncertain approach to deal with imprecise variables. A new approach is here presented for generating scenarios based on Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) to assess the uncertainties related to inexact data, renewable energy sources and power demand. In fact, due to the uncertainties related to forecasting loads and renewables, it is necessary to analyze the probability of occurrence of the prediction and the different scenarios that could be faced. Then, based on the generated scenarios and probabilities, a scenario-based two-stage stochastic optimization approach has been formulated to optimize the operation strategies of the various technologies and solve the unit commitment problem under uncertainty. The developed models have been applied to the Savona Campus Smart Polygeneration Microgrid, and historical data from 2018 have been used.

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