Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score

Description

Objective: To develop and validate a prediction model of mortality in patients with COVID-19 attending hospital emergency rooms. Design Multivariable prognostic prediction model. Setting 127 Spanish hospitals. Participants Derivation (DC) and external validation (VC) cohorts were obtained from multicentre and single-centre databases, including 4035 and 2126 patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively. Interventions Prognostic variables were identified using multivariable logistic regression. Main outcome measures 30-day mortality. Results: Patients' characteristics in the DC and VC were median age 70 and 61 years, male sex 61.0% and 47.9%, median time from onset of symptoms to admission 5 and 8 days, and 30-day mortality 26.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Age, low age-adjusted saturation of oxygen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation, dyspnoea and sex were the strongest predictors of mortality. Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a 95% CI for prediction of 30-day mortality of 0.822 (0.806–0.837) in the DC and 0.845 (0.819–0.870) in the VC. A simplified score system ranging from 0 to 30 to predict 30-day mortality was also developed. The risk was considered to be low with 0–2 points (0%–2.1%), moderate with 3–5 (4.7%–6.3%), high with 6–8 (10.6%–19.5%) and very high with 9–30 (27.7%–100%). Conclusions: A simple prediction score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data, provides a useful tool to predict 30-day mortality probability with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalised patients with COVID-19.

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Fundación SEIMC/GeSIDA

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Plan Nacional de I+D+i 2013-2016 and Instituto de Salud Carlos III

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Subdirección General de Redes y Centros de Investigación Cooperativa

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Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades

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European Development Regional Fund "A way to achieve Europe", Operative program Intelligent Growth 2014-2020

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Spanish AIDS Research Network (RIS) (RD16/0025/0017 (JB), RD16/0025/0018 (JRA), RD16CIII/0002/0006 (IJ))

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Spanish Network for Research in Infectious Diseases (REIPI) (RD16/0016/0001 (JRB), RD16/0016/0005 (JC) and RD16/0016/0009 (JP))

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